It's been a crazy few days. McCain suspending his campaign was something that few would have anticipated. Now the debabe is on so for now it's best to wait and see how it plays out. Things are looking really bright for Obama but as we have noticed, things can really change in just a couple of days.
Now to the main point of this post. This blog is two weeks old today and we've seen a pretty steady growth of visitors during that time. This is still a blog in its infancy but I hope that if you enjoy the analysis you bookmark this site or suscribe to the feed. I promise there will be regular updates, many new entries each week.
The first poll is still open for a couple of hours and so far 45 votes have been cast. We'll see how the result will correspond with the reality tomorrow.
If you have any feedback, comments, suggestions or criticism please post a comment and let us know. Any feedback would be highly appreciated. There are a bunch of people already who have checked the site frequently and I thank you for your interest. I hope you continue to enjoy the blog and I encourage you to post a comment and let me know of your opinion.
Lastly it must be said that even though the focus is now been purely on the US presidential election, there will be analysis on other issues coming soon. This site is fundamentally intended to be about international relations/politics so expect to see more of that soon. However, since the race is so interesting and so relevant at the moment the election coverage continues to be frequent.
Thank you to all the readers so far - this is just the beginning. Tomorrow is the time for the aftermath of the debate. Exciting debate night!
Read more...
September 26, 2008
September 23, 2008
Remember New Hampshire
New Hampshire could be the ultimate deciding state of all. There are still many variables and countless scenarios of how this race might turn out but I'm a bit irritated by the lack of polling in New Hampshire. Yes, it's only four electoral votes but those EV's can be absolutely crucial and definately worth more attention and polling. It's a very close state, a very independent-minded state and a state where McCain has a significant history. Keep in mind that if McCain wins New Hampshire it's among very likely scenarios that the numbers end up being 269-269.
Let's do a bit of electoral math. Some of this has been already mentioned in a past analysis.
Kerry won 252 electoral votes. All those Kerry states are more or less leaning towards Obama except New Hampshire. It's close especially in Pennsylvania according to the most recent polls but there's still a much higher probability of Obama winning all those other Kerry states than McCain has of winning any one of them.
Obama's ahead in Iowa and New Mexico by comfortable margins (Obama's ahead in NM by around six points and in IA by around ten according to RCP averages and Pollster's numbers). So Obama's "base" at this moment stands at 248 + 5 + 7 = 260. It's worthwhile to mention that this is the exact same situation where things where before the conventions (although some light blue states and light red states have become tighter).
Obama's ahead +4.0 in Colorado according to RCP average . In Pollster it's +2.7 for Obama. If he wins Colorado, he stands at 269 electoral votes.
Imagine McCain winning North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Does that sound very unlikely to you? Yes, it's tight in Virginia and suprisingly tight in states like North Carolina but all those states have a strong tendency of going Republican. McCain would stand at 265 electoral votes. What state's left? Correct, New Hampshire with its four electoral votes.
It looked the same way four weeks ago and it still looks the same today. While Obama had a great week and many states seem brighter for him right now (eg. Virginia, to some extent North Carolina and Florida) Obama's base is still Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico. That's 273 electoral votes. But if New Hampshire flips, it'll be 269-269.
RCP average of New Hampshire right now is +1.7 for Obama but it contains very, very old polls (including one from mid-August). In Pollster McCain's up 2.7 points right now and remember, these have been very favourable times for Obama in Pollster. Still, New Hampshire is almost leaning to McCain. Latest poll released (UNH, 9/14-21) had McCain up +2 points. The point is that even in this favourable climate towards Obama the state is a pure toss-up and most likely to flip to McCain.
McCain has a history in New Hampshire. He won the primaries there in 2000 and this year. His maverick image plays well with Granite State's voters who have a tendency to vote for people with a noticeable libertarian streak. McCain has a real shot.
269-269 is not a far-fetched fantasy. Sure, it's just one of many scenarios that might happen and even if current polling supports the scenario, suprises are bound to happen. Despite of that, New Hampshire is badly neglected by pollsters and pundits alike. We all know about Colorado and Ohio and Virginia but all signs indicate that this will be a close race no matter how the climate favours the Democrats. Obama hasn't opened up a big lead yet and it's less and less likely as each day passes. In close elections each electoral vote counts and as it stands today, New Hampshire will be one of the closest states come election day.
So please, all remember New Hampshire. It plays a part in the intriguing 269-269 scenario but even beyond that it plays a more important role than it has been given.
Read more...
Let's do a bit of electoral math. Some of this has been already mentioned in a past analysis.
Kerry won 252 electoral votes. All those Kerry states are more or less leaning towards Obama except New Hampshire. It's close especially in Pennsylvania according to the most recent polls but there's still a much higher probability of Obama winning all those other Kerry states than McCain has of winning any one of them.
Obama's ahead in Iowa and New Mexico by comfortable margins (Obama's ahead in NM by around six points and in IA by around ten according to RCP averages and Pollster's numbers). So Obama's "base" at this moment stands at 248 + 5 + 7 = 260. It's worthwhile to mention that this is the exact same situation where things where before the conventions (although some light blue states and light red states have become tighter).
Obama's ahead +4.0 in Colorado according to RCP average . In Pollster it's +2.7 for Obama. If he wins Colorado, he stands at 269 electoral votes.
Imagine McCain winning North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Does that sound very unlikely to you? Yes, it's tight in Virginia and suprisingly tight in states like North Carolina but all those states have a strong tendency of going Republican. McCain would stand at 265 electoral votes. What state's left? Correct, New Hampshire with its four electoral votes.
It looked the same way four weeks ago and it still looks the same today. While Obama had a great week and many states seem brighter for him right now (eg. Virginia, to some extent North Carolina and Florida) Obama's base is still Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico. That's 273 electoral votes. But if New Hampshire flips, it'll be 269-269.
RCP average of New Hampshire right now is +1.7 for Obama but it contains very, very old polls (including one from mid-August). In Pollster McCain's up 2.7 points right now and remember, these have been very favourable times for Obama in Pollster. Still, New Hampshire is almost leaning to McCain. Latest poll released (UNH, 9/14-21) had McCain up +2 points. The point is that even in this favourable climate towards Obama the state is a pure toss-up and most likely to flip to McCain.
McCain has a history in New Hampshire. He won the primaries there in 2000 and this year. His maverick image plays well with Granite State's voters who have a tendency to vote for people with a noticeable libertarian streak. McCain has a real shot.
269-269 is not a far-fetched fantasy. Sure, it's just one of many scenarios that might happen and even if current polling supports the scenario, suprises are bound to happen. Despite of that, New Hampshire is badly neglected by pollsters and pundits alike. We all know about Colorado and Ohio and Virginia but all signs indicate that this will be a close race no matter how the climate favours the Democrats. Obama hasn't opened up a big lead yet and it's less and less likely as each day passes. In close elections each electoral vote counts and as it stands today, New Hampshire will be one of the closest states come election day.
So please, all remember New Hampshire. It plays a part in the intriguing 269-269 scenario but even beyond that it plays a more important role than it has been given.
Read more...
September 21, 2008
The state of the race - five days before the first debate
This is the first of many analysis to come on the state of the race. The next one will be written after the first debate.
After four weeks that can be described as a political rollercoaster ride things are looking suprisingly familiar yet at the same time quite different. The Democratic Convention seems just like a distant memory anymore. Palin came, saw and conquered and then got bogged down by controversies. McCain bounce came and went and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression happened. What's the state of the race now? We'll take a closer look at the many aspects of the race.
The polls - what's the trend?
Today's (9/21) tracking polls are as follows:
Gallup - 49-45 Obama
Rasmussen - 48-47 Obama
Research2000 - 49-42 Obama
Hotline - 45-44 Obama
Obama's average lead: +3,25
The trend has been clear - Obama surged ahead in Gallup's polls in Wednesday, Rasmussen has trended towards Obama the whole week despite its stable numbers and Hotline and Research2000 both showed gains for Obama especially in midweek. However, it seems that Obama's so-called "counter bounce" has reached its limit. Gallup tightened two points today and Hotline and Rasmussen have shown very stable numbers during the past two, three days. Research2000 has had the same lead margin (give or take a point) for Obama for the past four days.
The conclusions are these: McCain's bounce had already faded before Monday's bad financial news. Obama got a clear bounce starting from Monday and gained momentum until about Thursday when the race more or less stabilized again. Does this bounce for Obama fade? It of course depends largely on the news, but if things stay relatively calm and there's no new major shock from the financial sector it may be that McCain gains a few points back and brings this race back to a statistical dead heat. Now the lead margin for Obama is probably about 2-4%.
In next week we probably see Obama staying in the lead for a couple of points but the margin will probably be very narrow. The financial crisis was still a definite advantage for Obama because it's always nicer being in a narrow lead/tie instead of being narrowly behind/tied. Obama also got other advantages from the past week's events beyond simple poll numbers which we will look at next.
Obama - trying to continue dictating the narrative
The conventional wisdom has been that if this election will be an election about economics, Obama will win. Well, then the past week definately should've helped Obama and it sure did. However, this thing is still far from being a sure Obama victory. While he gained during the past week the polls show a suprisingly tight numbers when asking "who's better with the economy". Hotline poll from 9/18 showed just +5 margin for Obama on the issue. He's surely hoping it'd be more because if McCain can get a grip after his not-so-good week he could well catch Obama on the issue.
Obama's plan is clear. Keep the pressure on the economy and more indirectly keep the pressure on Palin. Obama's got a lot of ammunition in store in the area of economics so he's surely going to use them. While McCain has a chance of catching up it's still an uphill battle for him. Secondly, Palin dropped from the brightest spotlight and while that would've been excellent news for Obama just 1,5 weeks ago, now they need to keep the pressure on her. Her negativity ratings have soared and the public perception of her has changed significantly especially among the "conservative" Democrats and independents.
Pressure on the economy, hammering Palin via surrogates. That way Obama can keep the momentum until the first debate.
McCain - difficulties with the economy, the Palin factor
If the past week was good for Obama, then it must've been bad for McCain. And it was. Mixed messages concerning the financial crisis didn't help (regulation or not?) and stating that "the economy is fundamentally strong" on Monday was also definately a minus. He's clearly uncomfortable with the issue and he must not let it show. The end of the week was already a bit better for him. It's unlikely he can change the narrative before the first debate to other issues like foreign policy which would be for his advantage so he just have to cope. The debate will be about foreign policy so he has to do well in order to change the focus and shift the momentum back on his side.
And then there's Palin. A huge celebrity which is suddenly looking more and more like a drag on the ticket. The campaign has managed her carefully and they need to do so in the future also. Expect to see them together a lot - that brings energy to McCain's events but it means they can't have the benefit of running mates campaigning in different states simultaneously and therefore maximizing the positive impact.
The debate will matter a lot - or not
The focus is on foreign policy. McCain holds the advantage on the issue - but if Obama can hold on to his own, will he be considered the winner? Or can McCain take advantage and shift the focus on homeland security/terrorism/'the surge' which will not be for Obama's benefit?
My prediction is this - both candidates try to avoid gaffes at all costs, especially Obama, and therefore the debate will be considered as a tie. Economic news continue to dominate after the debate and the polls stay relatively the same. Then again, the opposite can happen. It really is anybody's guess.
Only a bit over month remains in the campaign when the dust settles from the first debate. The final stretch begins. Obama has currently a slight advantage - the race effectively continued from right where it was before the conventions a month ago. A lot of things have happened but the dynamics of the race are pretty much the same despite McCain locking down the conservative support. It's Obama's to lose - but it won't be a major upset if he does indeed lose. Read more...
After four weeks that can be described as a political rollercoaster ride things are looking suprisingly familiar yet at the same time quite different. The Democratic Convention seems just like a distant memory anymore. Palin came, saw and conquered and then got bogged down by controversies. McCain bounce came and went and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression happened. What's the state of the race now? We'll take a closer look at the many aspects of the race.
The polls - what's the trend?
Today's (9/21) tracking polls are as follows:
Gallup - 49-45 Obama
Rasmussen - 48-47 Obama
Research2000 - 49-42 Obama
Hotline - 45-44 Obama
Obama's average lead: +3,25
The trend has been clear - Obama surged ahead in Gallup's polls in Wednesday, Rasmussen has trended towards Obama the whole week despite its stable numbers and Hotline and Research2000 both showed gains for Obama especially in midweek. However, it seems that Obama's so-called "counter bounce" has reached its limit. Gallup tightened two points today and Hotline and Rasmussen have shown very stable numbers during the past two, three days. Research2000 has had the same lead margin (give or take a point) for Obama for the past four days.
The conclusions are these: McCain's bounce had already faded before Monday's bad financial news. Obama got a clear bounce starting from Monday and gained momentum until about Thursday when the race more or less stabilized again. Does this bounce for Obama fade? It of course depends largely on the news, but if things stay relatively calm and there's no new major shock from the financial sector it may be that McCain gains a few points back and brings this race back to a statistical dead heat. Now the lead margin for Obama is probably about 2-4%.
In next week we probably see Obama staying in the lead for a couple of points but the margin will probably be very narrow. The financial crisis was still a definite advantage for Obama because it's always nicer being in a narrow lead/tie instead of being narrowly behind/tied. Obama also got other advantages from the past week's events beyond simple poll numbers which we will look at next.
Obama - trying to continue dictating the narrative
The conventional wisdom has been that if this election will be an election about economics, Obama will win. Well, then the past week definately should've helped Obama and it sure did. However, this thing is still far from being a sure Obama victory. While he gained during the past week the polls show a suprisingly tight numbers when asking "who's better with the economy". Hotline poll from 9/18 showed just +5 margin for Obama on the issue. He's surely hoping it'd be more because if McCain can get a grip after his not-so-good week he could well catch Obama on the issue.
Obama's plan is clear. Keep the pressure on the economy and more indirectly keep the pressure on Palin. Obama's got a lot of ammunition in store in the area of economics so he's surely going to use them. While McCain has a chance of catching up it's still an uphill battle for him. Secondly, Palin dropped from the brightest spotlight and while that would've been excellent news for Obama just 1,5 weeks ago, now they need to keep the pressure on her. Her negativity ratings have soared and the public perception of her has changed significantly especially among the "conservative" Democrats and independents.
Pressure on the economy, hammering Palin via surrogates. That way Obama can keep the momentum until the first debate.
McCain - difficulties with the economy, the Palin factor
If the past week was good for Obama, then it must've been bad for McCain. And it was. Mixed messages concerning the financial crisis didn't help (regulation or not?) and stating that "the economy is fundamentally strong" on Monday was also definately a minus. He's clearly uncomfortable with the issue and he must not let it show. The end of the week was already a bit better for him. It's unlikely he can change the narrative before the first debate to other issues like foreign policy which would be for his advantage so he just have to cope. The debate will be about foreign policy so he has to do well in order to change the focus and shift the momentum back on his side.
And then there's Palin. A huge celebrity which is suddenly looking more and more like a drag on the ticket. The campaign has managed her carefully and they need to do so in the future also. Expect to see them together a lot - that brings energy to McCain's events but it means they can't have the benefit of running mates campaigning in different states simultaneously and therefore maximizing the positive impact.
The debate will matter a lot - or not
The focus is on foreign policy. McCain holds the advantage on the issue - but if Obama can hold on to his own, will he be considered the winner? Or can McCain take advantage and shift the focus on homeland security/terrorism/'the surge' which will not be for Obama's benefit?
My prediction is this - both candidates try to avoid gaffes at all costs, especially Obama, and therefore the debate will be considered as a tie. Economic news continue to dominate after the debate and the polls stay relatively the same. Then again, the opposite can happen. It really is anybody's guess.
Only a bit over month remains in the campaign when the dust settles from the first debate. The final stretch begins. Obama has currently a slight advantage - the race effectively continued from right where it was before the conventions a month ago. A lot of things have happened but the dynamics of the race are pretty much the same despite McCain locking down the conservative support. It's Obama's to lose - but it won't be a major upset if he does indeed lose. Read more...
September 20, 2008
Campaign strategy videos
Here's a light appetite for all US election enthusiasists. Both campaigns have released videos where their campaign managers talk strategy. David Plouffe's (Obama) most recent one is from 09/16 and Rick Davis' (McCain) is unfortunately all the way back from June.
While both videos quite obviously don't contain any mind-blowing new info, they're still pretty intriguing. Plouffe's video is up to date which is nice and while Davis' video is clearly outdated it still shows you some insight on the basic cornerstones of McCain's campaigning (and at least it may provide you with laughter with Davis' talking about McCain winning California...)
David Plouffe - Obama's campaign manager - 09/16/2008
Rick Davis - McCain's campaign manager - 06/07/2008
Read more...
While both videos quite obviously don't contain any mind-blowing new info, they're still pretty intriguing. Plouffe's video is up to date which is nice and while Davis' video is clearly outdated it still shows you some insight on the basic cornerstones of McCain's campaigning (and at least it may provide you with laughter with Davis' talking about McCain winning California...)
David Plouffe - Obama's campaign manager - 09/16/2008
Rick Davis - McCain's campaign manager - 06/07/2008
Read more...
September 19, 2008
Obama's three weak spots
After McCain's bounce Obama's rise in the polls has been bigger and more sudden than expected. Financial crisis and McCain's minor gaffes have played right into Obama's hands. The conventional wisdom is that the first debate will be crucial and possibly game-changing. That may very well be true and McCain can't slip too much behind in the polls before it.
To put it simply there are practically just three major areas in presidential campaigning. First two are issue-related - domestic policy and foreign policy. Those two are quite distinctive from another. The third area is 'image politics' - possibly the most decisive one in contemporary American politics. Obama has a possible weak spot in each area - and McCain is surely going to do anything he can to mould public perception so that those possible weak spots will be perceived as such come November 4th.
1) The domestic policy weak spot - taxes
Who remembers a Democratic presidential candidate from the past few decades who hasn't been labeled as a tax-raising maniac who will hurt the economy? This syndrome of the Democrats is alive and well. How well, that depends on McCain.
Today's Rasmussen poll showed that "48% believe that taxes will go up if Obama is elected while 26% believe the same will happen if McCain is elected". A survey conducted on May 13th by Rasmussen indicated that "60% of voters believe tax hikes are bad for the economy while just 14% believe that raising taxes is good for the economy". So it is not beneficial to be perceived as a tax-raiser.
In the current economical turmoil it's hard to predict who comes out on top in economical issues although Obama has traditionally enjoyed a comfortable lead in that area. The biggest and perhaps the only weapon McCain has against Obama in economical issues is taxes and he's going to be talking about it again and again and especially in the debates.
If McCain can depict Obama being a big tax-raiser and create a narrative that he'd be better for the economy because of lower taxes he's going to take a lead in economical issues and therefore would take a lead in the whole race. It's not easy for him with all the Republican and Bush baggage but it's not impossible - and taxes are really the only issue in which he can impactfully beat Obama on domestic issues.
2) The foreign policy weak spot - being perceived as soft, naiive and unexperienced
This is also closely related to 'image politics'. First it must be mentioned that there is no fundamental disagreement about America's role in the world between the candidates. However, Obama has generally talked more about the importance of negotiations and has specifically mentioned the possibility of negotiating with possibly hostile world leaders (eg. Iran) "without preconditions". That phrase has been twisted to fit all kinds of assumptions but the fact remains that Obama is a more multilateral guy and yes, he's a Democrat. So he has the weak spot of being branded as soft, weak and naiive.
Combine that with the argument of him being unexperienced which effects mostly how people see him as commander in chief. His opposition to 'the surge' can be played against him like McCain already has. McCain enjoyes a big lead in commander in chief numbers and homeland security numbers but he hasn't been able to exploit them to his full advantage because this race has turned more or less into an election about the economy.
McCain has to bring the focus back on foreign policy and brand Obama as "a weak negotiator who's unexperienced to face the dangers of the world". The problem is that the narrative is currently all about economics and it's hard to imagine it changing dramatically anymore during this campaign.
3) The image politics weak spot - being perceived as un-American/elitist/angry black man/Muslim
Obama's black. That doesn't necessarily stop him from winning the election. But that brings him challenges that McCain doesn't have.
Obama's father was a Muslim. Obama has lived in Indonesia. Those facts don't necessarily stop him from winning the election but they do bring him challenges that McCain doesn't have.
Obama is a Harvard-educated scholar. He's attended a church of a controversial black preacher. Those facts don't necessarily stop him from winning the election but again McCain doesn't have any baggage like that all.
Something new might pop up from any of the above facts that could impend doom for Obama. Sadly even his Harvard education is more of a liability these days than a strength and while that fact might not destroy him, all the other aspects ranging from his Muslim father to being black and listening to Wright very well might. And McCain knows this. So don't be suprised if some 527 comes up with an explosive ad that will change everything.
In summary, Obama's possible weak spots are his tax policy, his perceived inexperience and softness in foreign policy and his background which could ignite some scandal. The first two weak spots could lose him an election but it would still probably be quite close. His possible weak spot in relation to his image could absolutely destroy him once and for all. He has been in the spotlight for 18 months now so it's unlikely that some skeletons are still uncovered. But it's not impossible.
Read more...
To put it simply there are practically just three major areas in presidential campaigning. First two are issue-related - domestic policy and foreign policy. Those two are quite distinctive from another. The third area is 'image politics' - possibly the most decisive one in contemporary American politics. Obama has a possible weak spot in each area - and McCain is surely going to do anything he can to mould public perception so that those possible weak spots will be perceived as such come November 4th.
1) The domestic policy weak spot - taxes
Who remembers a Democratic presidential candidate from the past few decades who hasn't been labeled as a tax-raising maniac who will hurt the economy? This syndrome of the Democrats is alive and well. How well, that depends on McCain.
Today's Rasmussen poll showed that "48% believe that taxes will go up if Obama is elected while 26% believe the same will happen if McCain is elected". A survey conducted on May 13th by Rasmussen indicated that "60% of voters believe tax hikes are bad for the economy while just 14% believe that raising taxes is good for the economy". So it is not beneficial to be perceived as a tax-raiser.
In the current economical turmoil it's hard to predict who comes out on top in economical issues although Obama has traditionally enjoyed a comfortable lead in that area. The biggest and perhaps the only weapon McCain has against Obama in economical issues is taxes and he's going to be talking about it again and again and especially in the debates.
If McCain can depict Obama being a big tax-raiser and create a narrative that he'd be better for the economy because of lower taxes he's going to take a lead in economical issues and therefore would take a lead in the whole race. It's not easy for him with all the Republican and Bush baggage but it's not impossible - and taxes are really the only issue in which he can impactfully beat Obama on domestic issues.
2) The foreign policy weak spot - being perceived as soft, naiive and unexperienced
This is also closely related to 'image politics'. First it must be mentioned that there is no fundamental disagreement about America's role in the world between the candidates. However, Obama has generally talked more about the importance of negotiations and has specifically mentioned the possibility of negotiating with possibly hostile world leaders (eg. Iran) "without preconditions". That phrase has been twisted to fit all kinds of assumptions but the fact remains that Obama is a more multilateral guy and yes, he's a Democrat. So he has the weak spot of being branded as soft, weak and naiive.
Combine that with the argument of him being unexperienced which effects mostly how people see him as commander in chief. His opposition to 'the surge' can be played against him like McCain already has. McCain enjoyes a big lead in commander in chief numbers and homeland security numbers but he hasn't been able to exploit them to his full advantage because this race has turned more or less into an election about the economy.
McCain has to bring the focus back on foreign policy and brand Obama as "a weak negotiator who's unexperienced to face the dangers of the world". The problem is that the narrative is currently all about economics and it's hard to imagine it changing dramatically anymore during this campaign.
3) The image politics weak spot - being perceived as un-American/elitist/angry black man/Muslim
Obama's black. That doesn't necessarily stop him from winning the election. But that brings him challenges that McCain doesn't have.
Obama's father was a Muslim. Obama has lived in Indonesia. Those facts don't necessarily stop him from winning the election but they do bring him challenges that McCain doesn't have.
Obama is a Harvard-educated scholar. He's attended a church of a controversial black preacher. Those facts don't necessarily stop him from winning the election but again McCain doesn't have any baggage like that all.
Something new might pop up from any of the above facts that could impend doom for Obama. Sadly even his Harvard education is more of a liability these days than a strength and while that fact might not destroy him, all the other aspects ranging from his Muslim father to being black and listening to Wright very well might. And McCain knows this. So don't be suprised if some 527 comes up with an explosive ad that will change everything.
In summary, Obama's possible weak spots are his tax policy, his perceived inexperience and softness in foreign policy and his background which could ignite some scandal. The first two weak spots could lose him an election but it would still probably be quite close. His possible weak spot in relation to his image could absolutely destroy him once and for all. He has been in the spotlight for 18 months now so it's unlikely that some skeletons are still uncovered. But it's not impossible.
Read more...
September 18, 2008
McCain's ways to the White House - 269-269 remains a possibility
What am I blabbering about 269-269? The more I look at the map the more it looks like that it's definately possible. On the other hand, there are naturally multiple other ways how the race might end up - with McCain actually winning. So let's look at those options first.
Two days ago I wrote about Obama's four roads to victory. There I argued that his base number of electoral votes is actually 255 which is undeniably a high number. It includes all the states Kerry won (minus New Hampshire) plus Iowa. I hold on to that analysis. It doesn't mean though that McCain isn't able to crack that base. First let's look at how McCain is able to work around that number without actually winning any of those 255 EV's.
Two days ago I wrote about Obama's four roads to victory. There I argued that his base number of electoral votes is actually 255 which is undeniably a high number. It includes all the states Kerry won (minus New Hampshire) plus Iowa. I hold on to that analysis. It doesn't mean though that McCain isn't able to crack that base. First let's look at how McCain is able to work around that number without actually winning any of those 255 EV's.
McCain's base number at the moment is 227 EV's (it includes Indiana which is arguably close and Florida, which is somewhat close though leaning Republican). The fact remains that McCain has much less options of winning than Obama. He has many states that he must absolutely win in order to win.
If Obama wins the mentioned 255 EV's, he needs only 15 electoral votes to win. The states left in play in that scenario are New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Now let's look at McCain's possible ways to victory.
1) 'The Swing State Way' (the most likely option)
227 + OH + VA + CO + NV = 274
Ohio is a must win for McCain. If he loses it, it's over because it's unlikely that he wins Pennsylvania or Michigan if he loses Ohio. Virginia is practically a must win too. Good news is that McCain is still a very slight favourite in both. Colorado is definately in Obama's reach but it too has traditionally been Republican. If Palin helps anywhere, she helps here. Nevada is another swing state but McCain has been in the lead there by a couple of poins pretty consistently for some time now. It's no doubt close but if Obama wins it he probably wins a lot of other swing states too and then it's over for McCain.
The good news for McCain is that while he doesn't have many ways to victory, this way is not unlikely at all. In fact, all these states voted Republican in the last two elections. So if McCain can keep the traditional Republican states, he wins. That is a difficult job for him but not a long shot.
2) 'The Breakthrough Way'
The only other chance for McCain to win the election is to break Obama's so-called base of 255 EV's. That means he has to win either Pennsylvania or Michigan (Minnesota, Wisconsin are more unlikely if not impossible, Oregon and Washington are out of reach no matter how "close" the polls supposedly are at the moment)
227 + OH + VA + PA/MI = 277 / 281
This would require McCain winning Ohio and Virginia again. Then if he wins Pennsylvania or Michigan he wins. In fact, if Obama loses PA or MI he pretty much can't win. This is a big challenge for McCain but not impossible. The latest polls there show a narrow race although those polls were conducted right at the height of McCain's bounce and now the race is again going better for Obama. This will be a hard task but it's also the only other way of him winning the election.
In conclusion, Obama has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan in order to win the election. McCain absolutely has to win Florida, Ohio and Virginia for him to win the race. Colorado will be a crucial state for McCain also because without it he'd had to win New Mexico and New Hampshire (if he doesn't win MI or PA).
But there's a third way...
3) '269-269' - the House decides the winner
Obama: 255 EV's + CO + NM = 269
McCain: 227EV's + OH + VA + NM + NH = 269
This scenario isn't even that unlikely. McCain wins Florida, Ohio and Virginia (not a big stretch of imagination). Obama wins Kerry states (minus New Hampshire), Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. Then, McCain wins New Hampshire - it's even.
The polls are actually making this scenario a real possibility. Obama is ahead in New Mexico and Colorado is a pure toss-up. McCain is in the lead in Ohio and Florida right now and Virginia is a traditional red state which very well might not flip. Then McCain needs only New Hampshire where he was +3 in the last conducted poll and where he has traditionally done very well.
This scenario would of course probably result in an Obama victory because it's hard to imagine the Republicans winning back the house.
The situation is this: Obama has at least four distinctive ways of reaching 270, McCain has basically two scenarios for doing the same. McCain has to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania or he has to defend succesfully all those states that Bush won two times in a row (Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada).
McCain's sudden downward trend
The convention bounce was not to last. Most people who thought rationally knew that McCain's momentum was temporary and that the race would be quite even quite soon. Yes, the Democrats panicked a little bit and it's only natural to worry when the polls don't go your way but those few who were able to observe the race without emotional involvement (that excludes me) were more commonly right in their conclusions. There are suprisingly high number of journalists who go by the flow and follow any given narrative that is being touted at any one time but let's not go into that right now.
The real notion here is that while many predicted McCain coming down and that the race would become even, few thought Obama would suddenly surge ahead with a big momentum before the first debate. But that is what's happening right now as I type.
The polls are clear. Here's Gallup's trend.
9/10: 48-44 McCain +4
9/12: 47-45 McCain + 2
9/14: 47-45 McCain +2
9/16: 45-47 Obama +2
Obama has surged ahead and gained six points in a week. And remember that Gallup's polls were more kind to McCain than many others. Let's look at Research2000's trend:
9/11: 45-47 Obama +2
9/15: 45-48 Obama +3
9/18: 43-49 Obama +6
While Research2000 uses a more favourable method towards Democrats than many other pollster (they interview 9% more Democrats than Republicans) the trend is clear - Obama's bump is four points in a week.
Hotline had the race on 9/11 at 46-44 for McCain. On 9/17 it was 45-42 for Obama. Obama gains five points in a week.
Rasmussen has had a much even graph between the two but even there are pretty clear signs of a shift. On 9/11 it was 46-46, an even race. Today about a week later it's again even at 48-48. However, in between McCain was in the lead with 3 points. So McCain's three-point lead has melted even when Rasmussen changed their party affiliation numbers in a way that favoured Republicans.
Few reasons why this is happening and why it has been faster than expected:
1) The positive Palin bounce has come to an end - Palin is more and more likely to become a liability.
2) The huge financial meltdown is clearly favouring Obama. McCain's statement of "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" can't do him much good.
3) McCain-Palin ticket has been painted more and more as liars and they lost the ad-war in the past week. Partly to blame is the campaign's own attack ads.
In conclusion, the trend is worrisome for McCain. All signs pointed towards an even stretch before the first debate on 26th of September. The Palin pick looks after a rosy start a bit more risky and the public discussion has really backlashed on McCain. The favourability numbers are coming down alarmingly fast for both McCain and Palin.
While the Democrats panicked too quickly just a few days ago, the Republicans have no need to feel too panicky - yet. In this election the news cycle is so much faster that everything can change before the first debate. Still, McCain needs to stop the bleeding before it gets out of control. He has a bigger chance of losing this election before the election day than Obama has.
No, Armageddon is not upon McCain's campaign but after an excellent start of the month they need to adjust themselves back into a more familiar role - as an underdog.
Read more...
The real notion here is that while many predicted McCain coming down and that the race would become even, few thought Obama would suddenly surge ahead with a big momentum before the first debate. But that is what's happening right now as I type.
The polls are clear. Here's Gallup's trend.
9/10: 48-44 McCain +4
9/12: 47-45 McCain + 2
9/14: 47-45 McCain +2
9/16: 45-47 Obama +2
Obama has surged ahead and gained six points in a week. And remember that Gallup's polls were more kind to McCain than many others. Let's look at Research2000's trend:
9/11: 45-47 Obama +2
9/15: 45-48 Obama +3
9/18: 43-49 Obama +6
While Research2000 uses a more favourable method towards Democrats than many other pollster (they interview 9% more Democrats than Republicans) the trend is clear - Obama's bump is four points in a week.
Hotline had the race on 9/11 at 46-44 for McCain. On 9/17 it was 45-42 for Obama. Obama gains five points in a week.
Rasmussen has had a much even graph between the two but even there are pretty clear signs of a shift. On 9/11 it was 46-46, an even race. Today about a week later it's again even at 48-48. However, in between McCain was in the lead with 3 points. So McCain's three-point lead has melted even when Rasmussen changed their party affiliation numbers in a way that favoured Republicans.
Few reasons why this is happening and why it has been faster than expected:
1) The positive Palin bounce has come to an end - Palin is more and more likely to become a liability.
2) The huge financial meltdown is clearly favouring Obama. McCain's statement of "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" can't do him much good.
3) McCain-Palin ticket has been painted more and more as liars and they lost the ad-war in the past week. Partly to blame is the campaign's own attack ads.
In conclusion, the trend is worrisome for McCain. All signs pointed towards an even stretch before the first debate on 26th of September. The Palin pick looks after a rosy start a bit more risky and the public discussion has really backlashed on McCain. The favourability numbers are coming down alarmingly fast for both McCain and Palin.
While the Democrats panicked too quickly just a few days ago, the Republicans have no need to feel too panicky - yet. In this election the news cycle is so much faster that everything can change before the first debate. Still, McCain needs to stop the bleeding before it gets out of control. He has a bigger chance of losing this election before the election day than Obama has.
No, Armageddon is not upon McCain's campaign but after an excellent start of the month they need to adjust themselves back into a more familiar role - as an underdog.
Read more...
September 16, 2008
Positive 'Palin effect' coming to a close
It's been noticeable for days now and it's becoming more and more evident that the so-called 'Palin effect' which energized McCain's campaign and helped him to a moderately big convention bounce is now ending. According to Research2000's and Hotline's polls Palin's favourability ratings have taken an impactful hit compared to the height of the convention.
In R2000's poll conducted on 9/11 Palin's favourability ratings were 52/35 (positive opinion/negative opinion). Today they were 45/44. In Hotline's poll her ratings on 9/7 were 48/24, today they were 47/36. Also today the percentage of people who think she's "just another politician who offers no new ideas and engages in negative politics" was 36% in Hotline's poll, nine points up since 9/7.
This has been in no way suprising but it is still worthwhile to mention because Palin has been a big factor in the recent McCain popularity surge and in the slight panic mode of the Democrats. She brought energy, excitement and celebity quality to the ticket and she drilled herself into the national conciousness like an Alaskan oil drill. The scandals relating to her family just intensified the immediate cult status she received and some section of the media by critisizing her (validly or not) created a minor backlash against Obama. That's why Obama had such difficulty adjusting to Palin because he had to take into an account the media frenzy that was going on.
Now things have settled down a bit. Palin gave her first interview which was not a catastrophe but it deflated her status. Her "ok" or worse performance combined with news that many claims about her (Bridge to Nowhere, earmarks etc.) were not "100% true" like most of the media so eloquently puts it slowed down the hype considerably. She was not the super politician anymore and McCain-Palin ticket had trouble answering the accusations. The momentum shifted to Obama and he has found a working tactic against Palin of not attacking her directly but letting the "meme of lying" about her record circulate the media via aides and spokespersons.
Introducing Palin to the mix affected the race in many ways.
1) It "brought the Republicans home" - evangelicals and conservatives didn't have a candidate, now they have one.
2) The whole style of campaigning changed - McCain ditched "experience" in favour of "change" and "two mavericks".
3) It energized the whole presidential race and seduced many independents and even Democrats to think that maybe McCain was their man after all.
Now the hype is all but over. Palin's negativity numbers have risen as she has received a lot of negative publicity. Combine this with McCain's ruthless new attack ads which were widely criticized and used against McCain by Obama effectively and it seems Palin's positive effect among independents and Democrats is coming to a close. Note that Republicans still like the ticket a lot more now that Palin is on it. While that was McCain's one goal when picking Palin the main goal was to get independents and women Democrats behind this "maverick". It looks more and more that it's not going to happen at least by large numbers.
The title says "Positive 'Palin effect' coming to a close". There's a chance that she begins to have a negative effect on McCain. If the narrative that she's dishonest, not-really-a-reformer, lightweight and "not ready" continues to take hold the Republican ticket might be in trouble. This risk was known all along and while it seemed the Republicans could win the media war concerning Palin in the days following the convention the tide has turned. It's still no way certain that she's going to be a drag on the ticket but the possibility of that happening is increasing day by day.
McCain's campaign is now in a watershed moment. Can they salvage Palin's image and stop the slow bleeding? Did the campaign contribute to bringing Palin down by their negative ads? Just five days ago it looked great for McCain. It still doesn't look bad. But now with the economic doom and gloom this is a crucial moment for his campaign. It was in McCain's interest to keep Palin in the headlines but it's not anymore.
'Palin effect' ran wild and helped McCain a lot during the past 15 days. Can McCain now contain that effect or has he unleashed something that will eventually distract him and bring him down in this close election?
Read more...
In R2000's poll conducted on 9/11 Palin's favourability ratings were 52/35 (positive opinion/negative opinion). Today they were 45/44. In Hotline's poll her ratings on 9/7 were 48/24, today they were 47/36. Also today the percentage of people who think she's "just another politician who offers no new ideas and engages in negative politics" was 36% in Hotline's poll, nine points up since 9/7.
This has been in no way suprising but it is still worthwhile to mention because Palin has been a big factor in the recent McCain popularity surge and in the slight panic mode of the Democrats. She brought energy, excitement and celebity quality to the ticket and she drilled herself into the national conciousness like an Alaskan oil drill. The scandals relating to her family just intensified the immediate cult status she received and some section of the media by critisizing her (validly or not) created a minor backlash against Obama. That's why Obama had such difficulty adjusting to Palin because he had to take into an account the media frenzy that was going on.
Now things have settled down a bit. Palin gave her first interview which was not a catastrophe but it deflated her status. Her "ok" or worse performance combined with news that many claims about her (Bridge to Nowhere, earmarks etc.) were not "100% true" like most of the media so eloquently puts it slowed down the hype considerably. She was not the super politician anymore and McCain-Palin ticket had trouble answering the accusations. The momentum shifted to Obama and he has found a working tactic against Palin of not attacking her directly but letting the "meme of lying" about her record circulate the media via aides and spokespersons.
Introducing Palin to the mix affected the race in many ways.
1) It "brought the Republicans home" - evangelicals and conservatives didn't have a candidate, now they have one.
2) The whole style of campaigning changed - McCain ditched "experience" in favour of "change" and "two mavericks".
3) It energized the whole presidential race and seduced many independents and even Democrats to think that maybe McCain was their man after all.
Now the hype is all but over. Palin's negativity numbers have risen as she has received a lot of negative publicity. Combine this with McCain's ruthless new attack ads which were widely criticized and used against McCain by Obama effectively and it seems Palin's positive effect among independents and Democrats is coming to a close. Note that Republicans still like the ticket a lot more now that Palin is on it. While that was McCain's one goal when picking Palin the main goal was to get independents and women Democrats behind this "maverick". It looks more and more that it's not going to happen at least by large numbers.
The title says "Positive 'Palin effect' coming to a close". There's a chance that she begins to have a negative effect on McCain. If the narrative that she's dishonest, not-really-a-reformer, lightweight and "not ready" continues to take hold the Republican ticket might be in trouble. This risk was known all along and while it seemed the Republicans could win the media war concerning Palin in the days following the convention the tide has turned. It's still no way certain that she's going to be a drag on the ticket but the possibility of that happening is increasing day by day.
McCain's campaign is now in a watershed moment. Can they salvage Palin's image and stop the slow bleeding? Did the campaign contribute to bringing Palin down by their negative ads? Just five days ago it looked great for McCain. It still doesn't look bad. But now with the economic doom and gloom this is a crucial moment for his campaign. It was in McCain's interest to keep Palin in the headlines but it's not anymore.
'Palin effect' ran wild and helped McCain a lot during the past 15 days. Can McCain now contain that effect or has he unleashed something that will eventually distract him and bring him down in this close election?
Read more...
September 15, 2008
Obama's four roads to victory
The focus of the national media is overwhelmingly on the national polls which is somewhat understandable because it's easier to state simple numbers instead of going into a detailed analysis about electoral college. Yes, there is talk about swing states (I'd think most people now know that Ohio is a swing state after being in a spotlight for years) and I know about CNN's John King's "magic wall" but if we are really to understand the state of the race we must focus even more carefully on the electoral map.
The last entry was about daily tracking polls and their significance. Now that we analyze electoral college it's important to remind that statewide polls are without much doubt the most important polls there are - after all the state-by-state results are that matter in the end. Rasmussen is releasing five new battleground state polls this evening but they are not likely to be race-altering numbers. The fundamentals of this race are clear at this point.
Obama and his staff talked about a 50-state plan during the summer and I believe it was in part sincere optimism. However, the conventions and the current dynamics of the race have pretty much shattered all hope for team Obama that he's going to be competitive in traditionally very red states like Georgia, North Dakota, Montana or even North Carolina and Missouri. The race looks more and more like a traditional horse race between a Democrat and a Republican. It all comes down to a bunch of key states, though one must admit the bunch looks a little bit different than in the past.
First of all, it seems pretty clear now that Obama has a good probability of winning all states that John Kerry carried in 2004 (known as 'Kerry states'). If Obama is able to win those states he's going to have 252 electoral votes, just 18 short of the magical 270. It's not as easy as it looks though. Kerry states that are crucial and possible candidates to flip to McCain are Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and long-shots Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Pennsylvania is one that has been acclaimed to be one of Obama's achilles heels and the hype has probably gone a bit too far. Sure, Clinton beat Obama badly in Pennsylvania but the claim that these so-called blue-collar workers are deeply difficult for Obama to reach is an overreaction and one example of how the media loves narratives and clings on to them a bit too passionately and for a bit too long. McCain hasn't been ahead in Pennsylvania in one single poll, not even at the height of his convention bounce during the past week.
Michigan is arguably a tougher call and one of the absolute key states for Obama. If he loses Michigan he's in all likelyhood going to lose. However, Michigan is always being heralded as ripe for Republicans but the economy favours Obama a lot in the state. The polls have been close and it's the toughest state for Obama to defend but it still seems it's going blue in November. Wisconsin and Minnesota are states that McCain fantasizes of but it's very hard for him to win there. Again, if he wins one of those states it's probable that Obama's going to lose by a big margin.
Now, one Kerry state that can play a suprisingly decisive role for Obama in November is New Hampshire. The winner of the Granite State receives only four EV's but as you can soon see those EV's can be crucial.
One other state that has to be mentioned before the scenarios is Iowa. It is according to all polls solidly going to Obama with its 7 EV's. It's an important capture for Obama.
Let's assume that the base Obama now has is 255 EV (Kerry states minus New Hampshire plus Iowa). He has to keep that base or he's toast (eg. losing Pennsylvania but winning Ohio? Not likely). Here are his roads to victory:
1) 'The Likely Road'
255 + NM + CO + NH = 273
According to all polls this is the most likely route to victory for Obama. No matter how you spin the map this scenario seems to be the easiest for Obama to reach. New Mexico has looked strong for months, Colorado is leaning Democratic more and more and New Hampshire is one of the Kerry states that Obama has had a lead in, albeit a small one. Notice that the probability of Obama to win those states decreases from left to right. (Note: New Hampshire's important role)
2) 'The Western Road'
255 + NM + CO + NV = 274
The same as scenario one except New Hampshire is replaced by Nevada. Nevada has been close in the latest polls and the state's demographics are changing rapidly but it would still be quite a coup for Obama. Still this remains a possible scenario.
3) 'The Thief's Road'
255 + VA + any state (eg. NH) = over 270
If Obama wins Virginia he's only two EV's short of victory. Then New Hampshire would again play a crucial role in bringing Obama past the finish line. On the other hand, if Obama wins Virginia and its 13 EV's it's likely that he's going to win more than one other state. As to how likely an Obama victory is in Virginia? The demographics are changing in this state too and the Democrats have had a formidable voter registration effort there. The African American turnout would have to be big. It's not impossible - Virginia's result is one of the most difficult to estimate (remember also the Bradley effect). Virginia has been traditionally a solid red state so this would definately be a magnificent theft by Obama.
4) 'The Battleground Road'
255 + OH/FL = over 270
If Obama wins Ohio, it's done. Ohio has been swinging back and forth in the latest polls, though it seems McCain has the upper hand at the moment. Florida seems to lean Republican and is a tough place for Obama to crack. He has the money to keep trying there but it's still a moderately long shot.
So in conclusion, Obama has quite a few ways to win this election (more than McCain on which I focus in the coming days). The assumption here is that Obama keeps the Kerry states (minus NH) and carries Iowa. One might claim that's a too optimistic of an assumption. However, the dynamics of the race seem to indicate that if Obama loses any of those Kerry states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin it will be hard for him to clean the table elsewhere. Those 255 EV's are not a lock for him yet and he has to fight to keep them but he has a much easier task of keeping all those states than McCain has of winning any one of those.
How to get those 15 electoral votes? Four scenarios rise above all else. Personally I estimate that either 'The Likely Road' or 'The Battleground Road' (with Ohio) are the most likely ones (huh, I have a lot of imagination in naming things). It'll be interesting to follow state polls and to see the race evolving.
One thing is for sure. If nothing dramatic happens and the race stays relatively close until the election day, Obama has more ways of winning than McCain. I'll analyze McCain's prospects soon. But one other thing is sure also - forget Georgia, Missouri and the like.
If I had to put my money on the line for Obama I'd say Ohio is the place to bet on. He wins there and it's over. One state, folks, it might just come down to one state again.
Read more...
The last entry was about daily tracking polls and their significance. Now that we analyze electoral college it's important to remind that statewide polls are without much doubt the most important polls there are - after all the state-by-state results are that matter in the end. Rasmussen is releasing five new battleground state polls this evening but they are not likely to be race-altering numbers. The fundamentals of this race are clear at this point.
Obama and his staff talked about a 50-state plan during the summer and I believe it was in part sincere optimism. However, the conventions and the current dynamics of the race have pretty much shattered all hope for team Obama that he's going to be competitive in traditionally very red states like Georgia, North Dakota, Montana or even North Carolina and Missouri. The race looks more and more like a traditional horse race between a Democrat and a Republican. It all comes down to a bunch of key states, though one must admit the bunch looks a little bit different than in the past.
First of all, it seems pretty clear now that Obama has a good probability of winning all states that John Kerry carried in 2004 (known as 'Kerry states'). If Obama is able to win those states he's going to have 252 electoral votes, just 18 short of the magical 270. It's not as easy as it looks though. Kerry states that are crucial and possible candidates to flip to McCain are Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and long-shots Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Pennsylvania is one that has been acclaimed to be one of Obama's achilles heels and the hype has probably gone a bit too far. Sure, Clinton beat Obama badly in Pennsylvania but the claim that these so-called blue-collar workers are deeply difficult for Obama to reach is an overreaction and one example of how the media loves narratives and clings on to them a bit too passionately and for a bit too long. McCain hasn't been ahead in Pennsylvania in one single poll, not even at the height of his convention bounce during the past week.
Michigan is arguably a tougher call and one of the absolute key states for Obama. If he loses Michigan he's in all likelyhood going to lose. However, Michigan is always being heralded as ripe for Republicans but the economy favours Obama a lot in the state. The polls have been close and it's the toughest state for Obama to defend but it still seems it's going blue in November. Wisconsin and Minnesota are states that McCain fantasizes of but it's very hard for him to win there. Again, if he wins one of those states it's probable that Obama's going to lose by a big margin.
Now, one Kerry state that can play a suprisingly decisive role for Obama in November is New Hampshire. The winner of the Granite State receives only four EV's but as you can soon see those EV's can be crucial.
One other state that has to be mentioned before the scenarios is Iowa. It is according to all polls solidly going to Obama with its 7 EV's. It's an important capture for Obama.
Let's assume that the base Obama now has is 255 EV (Kerry states minus New Hampshire plus Iowa). He has to keep that base or he's toast (eg. losing Pennsylvania but winning Ohio? Not likely). Here are his roads to victory:
1) 'The Likely Road'
255 + NM + CO + NH = 273
According to all polls this is the most likely route to victory for Obama. No matter how you spin the map this scenario seems to be the easiest for Obama to reach. New Mexico has looked strong for months, Colorado is leaning Democratic more and more and New Hampshire is one of the Kerry states that Obama has had a lead in, albeit a small one. Notice that the probability of Obama to win those states decreases from left to right. (Note: New Hampshire's important role)
2) 'The Western Road'
255 + NM + CO + NV = 274
The same as scenario one except New Hampshire is replaced by Nevada. Nevada has been close in the latest polls and the state's demographics are changing rapidly but it would still be quite a coup for Obama. Still this remains a possible scenario.
3) 'The Thief's Road'
255 + VA + any state (eg. NH) = over 270
If Obama wins Virginia he's only two EV's short of victory. Then New Hampshire would again play a crucial role in bringing Obama past the finish line. On the other hand, if Obama wins Virginia and its 13 EV's it's likely that he's going to win more than one other state. As to how likely an Obama victory is in Virginia? The demographics are changing in this state too and the Democrats have had a formidable voter registration effort there. The African American turnout would have to be big. It's not impossible - Virginia's result is one of the most difficult to estimate (remember also the Bradley effect). Virginia has been traditionally a solid red state so this would definately be a magnificent theft by Obama.
4) 'The Battleground Road'
255 + OH/FL = over 270
If Obama wins Ohio, it's done. Ohio has been swinging back and forth in the latest polls, though it seems McCain has the upper hand at the moment. Florida seems to lean Republican and is a tough place for Obama to crack. He has the money to keep trying there but it's still a moderately long shot.
So in conclusion, Obama has quite a few ways to win this election (more than McCain on which I focus in the coming days). The assumption here is that Obama keeps the Kerry states (minus NH) and carries Iowa. One might claim that's a too optimistic of an assumption. However, the dynamics of the race seem to indicate that if Obama loses any of those Kerry states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin it will be hard for him to clean the table elsewhere. Those 255 EV's are not a lock for him yet and he has to fight to keep them but he has a much easier task of keeping all those states than McCain has of winning any one of those.
How to get those 15 electoral votes? Four scenarios rise above all else. Personally I estimate that either 'The Likely Road' or 'The Battleground Road' (with Ohio) are the most likely ones (huh, I have a lot of imagination in naming things). It'll be interesting to follow state polls and to see the race evolving.
One thing is for sure. If nothing dramatic happens and the race stays relatively close until the election day, Obama has more ways of winning than McCain. I'll analyze McCain's prospects soon. But one other thing is sure also - forget Georgia, Missouri and the like.
If I had to put my money on the line for Obama I'd say Ohio is the place to bet on. He wins there and it's over. One state, folks, it might just come down to one state again.
Read more...
September 14, 2008
The basics of tracking polls - do they matter?
September 11th is not infamous anymore only for the obvious reason, it also marked the moment when there were four tracking polls published each day for the US presidential election (Research 2000/Daily Kos poll began). It's quite a number when compared to the last election or considering that it's still almost two months to the election day. However, a sheer quantity of polls doesn't necessarily quarantee reliable results. Therefore it's important to keep in mind a few basic facts about polls and especially about daily tracking polls.
There are four daily polls which are provided by Gallup, Rasmussen, Diageo/Hotline and the aforementioned Research 2000/Daily Kos. Gallup (yes, that Gallup) is a famous and old polling company which has been tracking this election daily since the primaries. Rasmussen Reports is another solid name in polling and it has also covered this election for some time now. Scott Rasmussen, the head of the company, is an evangelical Christian and the company has cooperated with Fox News but despite these facts he's widely considered to be a reliable and independent pollster. Diageo/Hotline started their daily polling on September 2nd and Reseach 2000/Daily Kos on September 11th. Daily Kos is a liberal blogging site but they have provided all the internals of Research 2000's polling so people can judge for themselves whether they are reliable or not. It's commendable to release as much of the polling internals and methodology as possible so Research 2000 is a welcomed addition.
There are certain things that has to be kept in mind when reading these polls. First, all four publish what are known as three-day rolling averages. This means that the average of polls from three past consecutive days will be published. On September 15th they publish the average of polls from 12th-14h of September. Each day the oldest day of polling will be dropped from the average and the previous day's poll is added to replace it. This has a few implications - the variance between the polls will not be huge because of the balancing effect of the previous days. Also, if one candidate one day takes a lead of 3% it is not clear whether this was because the previous day was excellent for that candidate or that the day which was dropped from the rolling average was a good day for him and therefore he lost that good number from his average.
Secondly, polls have always a margin of error and even though this is self-evident to many, it tends to be ignored in the heat of the race where passions run high. In the case of these four tracking polls, they report their 'MoE' to be between 2-3%. Any movement inside those numbers can be attributed to MoE and it's easy to read too much into a poll that has eg. Obama moving up one point when in truth it doesn't tell you any concrete, scientifical, statistical info at all.
Third thing to keep in mind is the methodology of different polls. This is very important and in essence the very core of polling. What questions do you ask is naturally a fundamental aspect but more importantly who do you ask them and in what proportion? All the pollsters try to estimate in which proportion the people will vote come election day. Few examples: women tend to vote more actively so many pollsters have the women-men ratio at approximately 52-48. Democrats have had the advantage of registered voters so all the pollsters ask more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. How big the difference is especially after the so-called 'Palin bounce' is really hard to estimate and so the pollsters have different estimates and this reflects directly into their poll results.
In conclusion we have four polling companies publishing three-day rolling averages on a daily basis. Margin of error is real and the methodologies of different pollsters matter a lot. Then how big an importance we should give to these tracking polls?
The answer is obvious to many but in practice many ignore it. What matter are trends. In any given day the margin of error may and will impact the numbers significantly because no pollster has resources to poll such a large number of people that MoE would be in reasonable levels. These three day rolling averages exist just because of that - that ables the pollsters to lower their MoE to 2-3%. However, the MoE is still there and 1-2% shifts up or down in these daily published polls alone do not tell you anything. Look at the past five daily polls and you start to get an idea. Compare one pollster's numbers with others - see if there are any common trends. Is McCain moving up in three of these four pollster's polls during the past five days? Is Obama consistently down 2-3% in many of these polls during many consecutive days?
This common sense attitude gets easily lost these days with the 'poll-mania' running wild. Political junkies, myself included, get easily trapped in the world of daily polls and start reading something into them that really isn't there. It's tempting and somewhat entertaining (depending on how your candidate is doing in the polls) but ultimately quite frutile. This syndrome does not limit itself into political junkies as news outlets are prone to make the same mistake sometimes. However, they usually put more weight into their own opinion polling (CNN, CBS etc.) and hype those polls out of proportion instead of the daily tracking polls. When it comes to the ordinary voter, they really don't follow the polls themselves but "surrender themselves" to the narrative that the media is touting at any one time. Tracking polls give the media more material to chew on but luckily the TV media for example hasn't started any "daily poll shows". Believe me, that day could come and it wouldn't be good news.
Tracking polls are mainly a concern of internet bloggers and enthusiasists at the moment. They are entertaining and when viewed through a larger scope they contain valuable information specifically in terms of trends. As temptating as it is to read into Gallup's daily poll that "Palin's interview gave McCain a one-point bump" it really isn't a very solid conclusion or even relevant in the big picture.
Remember, there are still 51 days left. That means we can enjoy at least 204 daily tracking polls. It's all perspective.
Read more...
There are four daily polls which are provided by Gallup, Rasmussen, Diageo/Hotline and the aforementioned Research 2000/Daily Kos. Gallup (yes, that Gallup) is a famous and old polling company which has been tracking this election daily since the primaries. Rasmussen Reports is another solid name in polling and it has also covered this election for some time now. Scott Rasmussen, the head of the company, is an evangelical Christian and the company has cooperated with Fox News but despite these facts he's widely considered to be a reliable and independent pollster. Diageo/Hotline started their daily polling on September 2nd and Reseach 2000/Daily Kos on September 11th. Daily Kos is a liberal blogging site but they have provided all the internals of Research 2000's polling so people can judge for themselves whether they are reliable or not. It's commendable to release as much of the polling internals and methodology as possible so Research 2000 is a welcomed addition.
There are certain things that has to be kept in mind when reading these polls. First, all four publish what are known as three-day rolling averages. This means that the average of polls from three past consecutive days will be published. On September 15th they publish the average of polls from 12th-14h of September. Each day the oldest day of polling will be dropped from the average and the previous day's poll is added to replace it. This has a few implications - the variance between the polls will not be huge because of the balancing effect of the previous days. Also, if one candidate one day takes a lead of 3% it is not clear whether this was because the previous day was excellent for that candidate or that the day which was dropped from the rolling average was a good day for him and therefore he lost that good number from his average.
Secondly, polls have always a margin of error and even though this is self-evident to many, it tends to be ignored in the heat of the race where passions run high. In the case of these four tracking polls, they report their 'MoE' to be between 2-3%. Any movement inside those numbers can be attributed to MoE and it's easy to read too much into a poll that has eg. Obama moving up one point when in truth it doesn't tell you any concrete, scientifical, statistical info at all.
Third thing to keep in mind is the methodology of different polls. This is very important and in essence the very core of polling. What questions do you ask is naturally a fundamental aspect but more importantly who do you ask them and in what proportion? All the pollsters try to estimate in which proportion the people will vote come election day. Few examples: women tend to vote more actively so many pollsters have the women-men ratio at approximately 52-48. Democrats have had the advantage of registered voters so all the pollsters ask more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. How big the difference is especially after the so-called 'Palin bounce' is really hard to estimate and so the pollsters have different estimates and this reflects directly into their poll results.
In conclusion we have four polling companies publishing three-day rolling averages on a daily basis. Margin of error is real and the methodologies of different pollsters matter a lot. Then how big an importance we should give to these tracking polls?
The answer is obvious to many but in practice many ignore it. What matter are trends. In any given day the margin of error may and will impact the numbers significantly because no pollster has resources to poll such a large number of people that MoE would be in reasonable levels. These three day rolling averages exist just because of that - that ables the pollsters to lower their MoE to 2-3%. However, the MoE is still there and 1-2% shifts up or down in these daily published polls alone do not tell you anything. Look at the past five daily polls and you start to get an idea. Compare one pollster's numbers with others - see if there are any common trends. Is McCain moving up in three of these four pollster's polls during the past five days? Is Obama consistently down 2-3% in many of these polls during many consecutive days?
This common sense attitude gets easily lost these days with the 'poll-mania' running wild. Political junkies, myself included, get easily trapped in the world of daily polls and start reading something into them that really isn't there. It's tempting and somewhat entertaining (depending on how your candidate is doing in the polls) but ultimately quite frutile. This syndrome does not limit itself into political junkies as news outlets are prone to make the same mistake sometimes. However, they usually put more weight into their own opinion polling (CNN, CBS etc.) and hype those polls out of proportion instead of the daily tracking polls. When it comes to the ordinary voter, they really don't follow the polls themselves but "surrender themselves" to the narrative that the media is touting at any one time. Tracking polls give the media more material to chew on but luckily the TV media for example hasn't started any "daily poll shows". Believe me, that day could come and it wouldn't be good news.
Tracking polls are mainly a concern of internet bloggers and enthusiasists at the moment. They are entertaining and when viewed through a larger scope they contain valuable information specifically in terms of trends. As temptating as it is to read into Gallup's daily poll that "Palin's interview gave McCain a one-point bump" it really isn't a very solid conclusion or even relevant in the big picture.
Remember, there are still 51 days left. That means we can enjoy at least 204 daily tracking polls. It's all perspective.
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The launch of a new political blog
Welcome all readers to a new political blog focused on international political events. The focus this fall will be on the US presidential elections since its long-term significance cannot be underestimated. The aim is to analyze all the latest events in the presidential race including the newest polls and the latest controversies and policy details. However, the focus is not on daily occurrances per se, but to analyze the factors behind the news and the polls.
The blog and the whole concept is still in its infancy but as time goes by there's sure to come some weekly regular features. For now I wish you all welcome and hopefully you'll enjoy the analysis in the coming months.
Read more...
The blog and the whole concept is still in its infancy but as time goes by there's sure to come some weekly regular features. For now I wish you all welcome and hopefully you'll enjoy the analysis in the coming months.
Read more...
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