Women and the debates will seal the deal for Obama

Obama is in all likelyhood going to win the election. The decisive factors besides the financial crisis in his up-coming victory are women and the debate performances.

It is clear at this point that women have not been persuaded by the Palin pick to vote for McCain. Women have traditionally been more Democratic and in this election the trend is as strong as ever. The strategy of picking Palin and luring Hillary supporters was a compelling narrative and it sounded somewhat promising but the scenario hasn't actualized one bit. Let's look at the newly released Quinnipiac state polls (10/8-12, >1000 LV, +/-3) for numbers:

Females: Who are you going to vote? (Obama-McCain)

Colorado - 54%-38% - Obama +16
Michigan - 60%-32% - Obama +28
Minnesota - 57%-34% - Obama +23
Wisconin - 59%-33% - Obama +26

Simply stunning numbers.

Let's look at the national numbers for further confirmation:

Gallup, Sep 29-Oct 05
53%-39% - Obama +14

Research2000/Daily Kos, Oct 11-Oct 13
59%-35% - Obama +19

Rasmussen (no demographics available)

"October 12, 2008: Obama leads by fourteen percentage points among women..."

So it's absolutely clear that Obama is crushing McCain on female voters. According to an exit poll in 2004 Kerry won women by three points. So this is a huge advantage for Obama. Palin has probably hurt McCain more with women than helped.

Another decisive factor in Obama's likely victory is the debates. CNN's and CBS's polls all showed that Obama won the first two debates. Let's look at the most recent data again from Quinnipiac's state polls.

Who won the second debate? (Obama-McCain)

Colorado - 56%-24% - Obama +32
Michigan - 56%-22% - Obama +34
Minnesota - 57-22% - Obama +35
Wisconsin - 58%-21% - Obama +37

Again, simply stunning numbers for Obama. The debates have really helped Obama with independents which are the key in winning this election. Obama is currently in commanding lead with independents (R2K poll +9 for Obama) and the debates have surely helped. Obama's "cool and reassuring demeanour" in the words of pundits has removed doubts that Obama's not ready for the presidency.

Women and the debates, two things that I'm sure can't be underestimated when analyzing why Obama won the election.