The tracking polls have been very stable

A lot is going on around the election all the time. Debates, speeches, ads, attacks - the campaigning never stops and the press is more involved than ever now that there's only three weeks to the election day. The remarkable thing is that since the VP debate on 10/02 the tracking poll numbers haven't really moved. They have actually been very stable. Many pundits and casual followers alike thought that the debates would have an impact. They've had one - Obama has been able to maintain his commanding lead consistently over the past 1,5 weeks.

Let's look at the actual numbers. (McCain-Obama)

Pollster ---------- 10/02 ---- 10/13 --- movement

Gallup ------------42-49 ----- 41-51 --- Obama +3
Rasmussen ---- 44-51 ---- 45-50 -- McCain +2
Research 2000 40-51 ----- 40-52 -- Obama +1


All the movement is inside the MoE. The stability can be traced even more backwards than to 10/02. In Rasmussen's polls since 09/26 Obama has been between 50-52% and McCain between 44-45%. The stability has been simply stunning. In Gallup's polls during the same time period Obama's numbers have been between 48-52% and McCain's between 41-44%. The difference is significant and revealing. In R2K's polls again during the same time period Obama's numbers have been between 48-53% and McCain's between 40-43%.

McCain hasn't break the 45% ceiling in any of the three tracking polls since 09/26. During the same period Obama has never dropped below 48% and has been as high as 53%. That is all you need to know.

Let's look at some other tracking polls during a shorter time period (these pollster's have changed their methodology since 09/26 or don't have an easily accessible history of the poll numbers).

Pollster ----------- 10/09 ------ 10/13 ----- movement

Zogby ------------ 44-48 ------- 44-48 ----- Nothing
Diageo/Hotline - 41-47 --------42-48 ----- Nothing
Battleground --- 45-48 ---------43-51 ------ Obama +5

While these numbers tell us a lot less because they are from a shorter time period it still shows that the recent attack against Obama about Ayers has not moved the numbers at all. (Battleground has been a very shifty pollster so their numbers are not quite so useful).

The facts are these - Obama is ahead about 7% nationally (RCP avg. +6,8, Pollster avg. +7,6) and that he has had a sizeable, stable lead since the late September. Debates have been considered victories for Obama and it has negated any effect that McCain's attacks might have caused.

The future is still clear. Obama will become the next president if there's no major sudden game-changer event like a terrorist attack.