It's interesting to notice that 25 days before the election both candidates are still predominantly campaigning in traditionally opposition states. Obama's strategy is understandable since he's in a comfortable lead in most if not all Kerry states and in a good position in traditionally swing and red states but McCain's strategy is quite perplexing. Check out his schedule:
Friday, October 10, 2008
8:45 a.m., Rally in La Crosse, WI.
4:30 p.m., Town Hall in Lakeville, MN.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
8 a.m., Rally in Johnstown, PA.
10:30 a.m., Rally in Davenport, IA.
Monday, October 13, 2008
10 a.m., Rally in Virginia Beach, VA.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
9 p.m., Debate in Hempstead, NY.
What on earth is he doing in Wisconsin (RCP avg. -8,8%), Minnesota (-8,3%), Iowa (-9,5%) and Pennsylvania (-13,8%)?
It is more and more evident that the only way McCain can win this race is if a miracle happens (from McCain's point of view) and some dramatic revelation about Obama comes to light. The only other way is if McCain can re-focus his campaign and win all Bush states (minus Iowa and New Mexico). It's not impossible but the way McCain is squandering his time in solid blue states like Pennsylvania (it hasn't been anywhere close for two weeks already) he's having a really difficult time winning states like North Carolina not to mention Florida or Virginia.
McCain needs to stop the useless campaigning in the Great Lakes area and focus all his resources on Bush states. North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri shouldn't be anywhere near close and he should be able to bring those states back to him if he just showed some interest to those states' constituents. His campaign schedule is truly remarkable and it can be seen as very bold or very stupid.
One thing to keep in mind is that if McCain did more or less pull out of Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin it would be perceived as another sign of weakness and it could create a harmful narrative and a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's a risk he should take though, because otherwise he's destined to lose the election.
October 10, 2008
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