McCain will lose because of the economy - but he wouldn't have had to

A lot of things have happened in the last two weeks. The VP debate, the second presidential debate, the financial turmoil - all these things have been covered in depth in the blogosphere already. The campaign has really taken a dramatic turn as all things point towards an Obama victory, if not a landslide. Is it really so? Is McCain doomed? Yes he is, and it's not only because the financial crisis surfaced. It's because of his response to it.

There is precious little that McCain's campaign can do anymore. I wrote in mid-September that Obama's three possible weak spots were taxes, foreign policy experience and an image politics weak spot. Well, now or never the tired cliché of "it's the economy, stupid" really applies. It has been nearly impossible to compete in any other policy area than the economy since Black Monday on September 15th. The incumbent is always to blame in times like these so does McCain have any chance of "owning" the economic discussion? He might have had one, but not anymore. The boat has passed and the concentration on image politics with the Ayers thing is too little, too late and about the wrong subject.

If McCain had attacked Obama over his connections in August or even during his convention bounce in early September the character attack might have worked. Now, however, it's only backfiring and one can only wonder how close McCain would be with a better campaign strategy to begin with. Ayers is not something that people care about right now. It only fires up the hard right wing of the Republican party and alienates independents. After falling behind in the polls it's understandable and even inevitable that they went that way but they should've seen by now that it does not work. The campaign even signaled this themselves when they said after the second debate that they're not going to talk about Ayers anymore. Why did they continue? That decision was their final nail in the coffin.

All signs pointed out on September 14th that this would be a close election. McCain's convention bounce was all but gone and the trend continued to be downward. In all likelyhood it would've been a tiny Obama lead going into the first debate without the financial crisis. Now that it happened the environment obviously favours Obama overwhelmingly. That didn't have to mean that McCain's campaign goes down in flames. The campaign made serious mistakes and calling them erratic is not the most far-fetched idea to be heard these days.

McCain's stunt to suspend his campaign was a way too ambitious move. He should've acted agressively, yes, but not in a way the he did. He should've talked about policy, policy and policy and emphasize his tax cuts now that the economy is in crisis. He should've painted Obama as too inexperienced in hard times like these and he should've showed steady leadership with an emphasis on substance. He has indeed tried to paint Obama as too inexperienced but when words don't correspond with actions they're useless.

It was going to be an uphill battle for McCain but it didn't have to go the way he did. Maybe it really shows that he doesn't know a lot about economics. When the country is in crisis they don't look to the new guy first - yes, it's tempting to bring "change" but people are conservatives at heart and they seek the familiar and safe when things go bad. McCain could've provided that with his experience and "maverick image" that wasn't so tarnished back in September. He did not. His whole campaign was spinning in chaos and he couldn't translate a simple, solid message to the voters. It was Obama who not only benefited generically from the crisis, he earned the poll bump with his actions.

Then came the debates and McCain was lousy. He truly was. That doesn't mean that Obama was great, he wasn't, but his style worked well against the grumpy old guy. McCain isn't really a good performer. He has come across as old, angry and preposterous. This isn't partisan spin but an independent evaluation from the sidelines. Obama's cool demeanour has worked because McCain has been so unsympathetic. If McCain would've come across as a steady, experienced father-like figure he could've schooled Obama badly and depicted Obama as distant which is Obama's pitfall. Instead he left Obama to be presidential and came across as the challenger. He was the challenger but the way he could've climbed up in the polls would've been to act like the man in charge. It might not have worked. But the routine he pulled of now of being an angry challenger was a terrible choice. Maybe it's all he managed to be, who knows. But it's his demeanour and stunts that really lost him this election.

The surfacing of the financial crisis was a terrible blow to the McCain team. It wouldn't have been a suprise if he had lost. But the way McCain tried to turn the crisis to his advantage and how he has performed in the debates sealed his fate. He had a reputation of being an independent-minded reformer who had experience and who was fun to hang around with. Now he has been succesfully painted as a George W. Bush II whose experience hasn't helped him to be presidential and who is to top it all not very likeable. How has Obama been so succesful at turning McCain's image upside down? He should thank McCain for being so helpful in that.