McCain has attacked two of Obama's three weak spots - one remains

As I listed over a month ago, three areas that can be used or perceived as Obama's weak spots are taxes, softness on foreign policy and image politics. McCain has attacked Obama for his ties with Ayers for quite some time now and has therefore used the 'image politics' card that was perhaps inevitable - Obama's not like us, he's strange or risky or elite etc. Take your pick. This time McCain chose Ayers instead of reverend Wright.

That image politics card hasn't played out well for McCain though. Polls showed that it brought his own favourability ratings down and did little good in the polls and maybe even had a negative effect. While they continue to keep that issue up on some level (how can you bury it now) they have shifted focus on Obama's tax policy which again was to be expected. Joe the Plumber, never mind how calculated or spontaneous his role in this has been, has brought this issue back to the forefront. Republicans love to talk about taxes because their message is easy to sell - the recent marginal tightening may not be because of taxes per se but even if it has it's not enough for McCain.

So McCain has extensively used two of Obama's three weak spots - one is left. That is national security and Obama's alleged naivete regarding the issue and foreign policy in general. This card will be played more agressively soon but will it have an effect?

The talk is going on about Bin Laden and his possible "endorsement" for Obama. And there's talk that he might be captured. I have argued that one of two imaginable ways for Obama to lose this election is a terrorist attack on domestic soil (the other one is a personal scandal like a sex scandal etc.). That I don't think the McCain campaign can orchestrate (conspiracy theorists may disagree) but an October suprise on national security is a real possibility. If nothing else, McCain will definately try to shift the focus on Obama's perceived softness on foreign policy issues. He has tried it already of course with his remarks about Obama's plans to negotiate without preconditions but without a good catalyst those allegations don't caught the fire McCain needs at this moment. It's almost 100% certain that McCain will attack Obama on foreign policy/national security but the effectiveness depends largely whether the McCain campaign can come up with a real "October suprise".

Then there's a chance and not a minor one that if the polls show McCain significantly behind one week before the election that he's going to refocus on image politics and bring up reverend Wright. McCain has said he won't do that but that has got more to do with the fear of being perceived as racist than with principles. If the campaign thinks they have nothing to lose they might very well bring up Wright and his clips of "hating America" again. That's a risk but one that they may feel they have to take.

Taxes, Obama's image and foreign policy/national security. All three will be in the forefront of McCain's campaign in the last two weeks. Two of those have already been played quite extensively, will the third make a difference?