The debate - much fuss but likely little effect

The debate tonight has drawn a lot of attention and has created intense speculation about McCain's supposedly harder stance and more direct attacks against Obama. While it's probably true that McCain will try to land a knock-out punch more eagerly than before it's unlikely that we're going to see one, even if McCain goes into full attack mode. That wouldn't be very wise though, because the negativity of McCain's campaign last week has been perceived to been more hurtful than helpful to the Republican cause. An all-out attack would be in all likelyhood be perceived as a desperation move and it would turn a lot of voters off. So McCain probably tries to hammer Obama on a few selected issues and get a couple of zingers to connect.

Why do I say those attempts are not likely to result in a knock-out punch? Two reasons.

The target is smooth and difficult to hit and the ammunition is lacking in firepower. Obama has been almost overbearingly calm and collected in an effort to be perceived as reassuring and presidential. He has mostly succeeded. So whatever McCain throws at him it's unlikely to stump or irritate Obama. If the ammunition was good then Obama couldn't simply shield away from the attacks by being "cool" and in some ways distant but the punch in McCain's potential attacks is hardly there.

Ayers doesn't interest people and it has been beaten to death already. McCain has refused to bring up Wright which might actually work with some white voters. The economy is not a good terrain for McCain so no secret weapon there either. Foreign policy is McCain's forte but Obama has so far held his own in the debates in that area too. McCain simply doesn't have a good attack line against Obama or at least we haven't seen it yet.

In all likelyhood this debate will be more heated and will be labeled as the most interesting one of the three. We might even get some clips that will be played over and over again in the news or in Youtube. But nothing else is enough for McCain than a pure, solid victory over Obama. Based on the previous debates it's fairly safe to say that that is not very probable.

Obama is pulling away in some swing states (Virginia) and has solified his lead in others (Florida, Colorado). Obama is ahead in national polls about seven-to-eight points. The debate is the last real chance of making a big impact exluding some unforseen event and both campaigns know this. That's why Obama's going to play this safe and it would be no suprise if the next weekend's polls will be pretty much like the last weekend's.