Remember New Hampshire

New Hampshire could be the ultimate deciding state of all. There are still many variables and countless scenarios of how this race might turn out but I'm a bit irritated by the lack of polling in New Hampshire. Yes, it's only four electoral votes but those EV's can be absolutely crucial and definately worth more attention and polling. It's a very close state, a very independent-minded state and a state where McCain has a significant history. Keep in mind that if McCain wins New Hampshire it's among very likely scenarios that the numbers end up being 269-269.

Let's do a bit of electoral math. Some of this has been already mentioned in a past analysis.

Kerry won 252 electoral votes. All those Kerry states are more or less leaning towards Obama except New Hampshire. It's close especially in Pennsylvania according to the most recent polls but there's still a much higher probability of Obama winning all those other Kerry states than McCain has of winning any one of them.

Obama's ahead in Iowa and New Mexico by comfortable margins (Obama's ahead in NM by around six points and in IA by around ten according to RCP averages and Pollster's numbers). So Obama's "base" at this moment stands at 248 + 5 + 7 = 260. It's worthwhile to mention that this is the exact same situation where things where before the conventions (although some light blue states and light red states have become tighter).

Obama's ahead +4.0 in Colorado according to RCP average . In Pollster it's +2.7 for Obama. If he wins Colorado, he stands at 269 electoral votes.

Imagine McCain winning North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Does that sound very unlikely to you? Yes, it's tight in Virginia and suprisingly tight in states like North Carolina but all those states have a strong tendency of going Republican. McCain would stand at 265 electoral votes. What state's left? Correct, New Hampshire with its four electoral votes.

It looked the same way four weeks ago and it still looks the same today. While Obama had a great week and many states seem brighter for him right now (eg. Virginia, to some extent North Carolina and Florida) Obama's base is still Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico. That's 273 electoral votes. But if New Hampshire flips, it'll be 269-269.

RCP average of New Hampshire right now is +1.7 for Obama but it contains very, very old polls (including one from mid-August). In Pollster McCain's up 2.7 points right now and remember, these have been very favourable times for Obama in Pollster. Still, New Hampshire is almost leaning to McCain. Latest poll released (UNH, 9/14-21) had McCain up +2 points. The point is that even in this favourable climate towards Obama the state is a pure toss-up and most likely to flip to McCain.

McCain has a history in New Hampshire. He won the primaries there in 2000 and this year. His maverick image plays well with Granite State's voters who have a tendency to vote for people with a noticeable libertarian streak. McCain has a real shot.

269-269 is not a far-fetched fantasy. Sure, it's just one of many scenarios that might happen and even if current polling supports the scenario, suprises are bound to happen. Despite of that, New Hampshire is badly neglected by pollsters and pundits alike. We all know about Colorado and Ohio and Virginia but all signs indicate that this will be a close race no matter how the climate favours the Democrats. Obama hasn't opened up a big lead yet and it's less and less likely as each day passes. In close elections each electoral vote counts and as it stands today, New Hampshire will be one of the closest states come election day.

So please, all remember New Hampshire. It plays a part in the intriguing 269-269 scenario but even beyond that it plays a more important role than it has been given.