Positive 'Palin effect' coming to a close

It's been noticeable for days now and it's becoming more and more evident that the so-called 'Palin effect' which energized McCain's campaign and helped him to a moderately big convention bounce is now ending. According to Research2000's and Hotline's polls Palin's favourability ratings have taken an impactful hit compared to the height of the convention.

In R2000's poll conducted on 9/11 Palin's favourability ratings were 52/35 (positive opinion/negative opinion). Today they were 45/44. In Hotline's poll her ratings on 9/7 were 48/24, today they were 47/36. Also today the percentage of people who think she's "just another politician who offers no new ideas and engages in negative politics" was 36% in Hotline's poll, nine points up since 9/7.

This has been in no way suprising but it is still worthwhile to mention because Palin has been a big factor in the recent McCain popularity surge and in the slight panic mode of the Democrats. She brought energy, excitement and celebity quality to the ticket and she drilled herself into the national conciousness like an Alaskan oil drill. The scandals relating to her family just intensified the immediate cult status she received and some section of the media by critisizing her (validly or not) created a minor backlash against Obama. That's why Obama had such difficulty adjusting to Palin because he had to take into an account the media frenzy that was going on.

Now things have settled down a bit. Palin gave her first interview which was not a catastrophe but it deflated her status. Her "ok" or worse performance combined with news that many claims about her (Bridge to Nowhere, earmarks etc.) were not "100% true" like most of the media so eloquently puts it slowed down the hype considerably. She was not the super politician anymore and McCain-Palin ticket had trouble answering the accusations. The momentum shifted to Obama and he has found a working tactic against Palin of not attacking her directly but letting the "meme of lying" about her record circulate the media via aides and spokespersons.

Introducing Palin to the mix affected the race in many ways.

1) It "brought the Republicans home" - evangelicals and conservatives didn't have a candidate, now they have one.

2) The whole style of campaigning changed - McCain ditched "experience" in favour of "change" and "two mavericks".

3) It energized the whole presidential race and seduced many independents and even Democrats to think that maybe McCain was their man after all.

Now the hype is all but over. Palin's negativity numbers have risen as she has received a lot of negative publicity. Combine this with McCain's ruthless new attack ads which were widely criticized and used against McCain by Obama effectively and it seems Palin's positive effect among independents and Democrats is coming to a close. Note that Republicans still like the ticket a lot more now that Palin is on it. While that was McCain's one goal when picking Palin the main goal was to get independents and women Democrats behind this "maverick". It looks more and more that it's not going to happen at least by large numbers.

The title says "Positive 'Palin effect' coming to a close". There's a chance that she begins to have a negative effect on McCain. If the narrative that she's dishonest, not-really-a-reformer, lightweight and "not ready" continues to take hold the Republican ticket might be in trouble. This risk was known all along and while it seemed the Republicans could win the media war concerning Palin in the days following the convention the tide has turned. It's still no way certain that she's going to be a drag on the ticket but the possibility of that happening is increasing day by day.

McCain's campaign is now in a watershed moment. Can they salvage Palin's image and stop the slow bleeding? Did the campaign contribute to bringing Palin down by their negative ads? Just five days ago it looked great for McCain. It still doesn't look bad. But now with the economic doom and gloom this is a crucial moment for his campaign. It was in McCain's interest to keep Palin in the headlines but it's not anymore.

'Palin effect' ran wild and helped McCain a lot during the past 15 days. Can McCain now contain that effect or has he unleashed something that will eventually distract him and bring him down in this close election?