Obama's four roads to victory

The focus of the national media is overwhelmingly on the national polls which is somewhat understandable because it's easier to state simple numbers instead of going into a detailed analysis about electoral college. Yes, there is talk about swing states (I'd think most people now know that Ohio is a swing state after being in a spotlight for years) and I know about CNN's John King's "magic wall" but if we are really to understand the state of the race we must focus even more carefully on the electoral map.

The last entry was about daily tracking polls and their significance. Now that we analyze electoral college it's important to remind that statewide polls are without much doubt the most important polls there are - after all the state-by-state results are that matter in the end. Rasmussen is releasing five new battleground state polls this evening but they are not likely to be race-altering numbers. The fundamentals of this race are clear at this point.

Obama and his staff talked about a 50-state plan during the summer and I believe it was in part sincere optimism. However, the conventions and the current dynamics of the race have pretty much shattered all hope for team Obama that he's going to be competitive in traditionally very red states like Georgia, North Dakota, Montana or even North Carolina and Missouri. The race looks more and more like a traditional horse race between a Democrat and a Republican. It all comes down to a bunch of key states, though one must admit the bunch looks a little bit different than in the past.

First of all, it seems pretty clear now that Obama has a good probability of winning all states that John Kerry carried in 2004 (known as 'Kerry states'). If Obama is able to win those states he's going to have 252 electoral votes, just 18 short of the magical 270. It's not as easy as it looks though. Kerry states that are crucial and possible candidates to flip to McCain are Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and long-shots Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Pennsylvania is one that has been acclaimed to be one of Obama's achilles heels and the hype has probably gone a bit too far. Sure, Clinton beat Obama badly in Pennsylvania but the claim that these so-called blue-collar workers are deeply difficult for Obama to reach is an overreaction and one example of how the media loves narratives and clings on to them a bit too passionately and for a bit too long. McCain hasn't been ahead in Pennsylvania in one single poll, not even at the height of his convention bounce during the past week.

Michigan is arguably a tougher call and one of the absolute key states for Obama. If he loses Michigan he's in all likelyhood going to lose. However, Michigan is always being heralded as ripe for Republicans but the economy favours Obama a lot in the state. The polls have been close and it's the toughest state for Obama to defend but it still seems it's going blue in November. Wisconsin and Minnesota are states that McCain fantasizes of but it's very hard for him to win there. Again, if he wins one of those states it's probable that Obama's going to lose by a big margin.

Now, one Kerry state that can play a suprisingly decisive role for Obama in November is New Hampshire. The winner of the Granite State receives only four EV's but as you can soon see those EV's can be crucial.

One other state that has to be mentioned before the scenarios is Iowa. It is according to all polls solidly going to Obama with its 7 EV's. It's an important capture for Obama.

Let's assume that the base Obama now has is 255 EV (Kerry states minus New Hampshire plus Iowa). He has to keep that base or he's toast (eg. losing Pennsylvania but winning Ohio? Not likely). Here are his roads to victory:

1) 'The Likely Road'

255 + NM + CO + NH = 273

According to all polls this is the most likely route to victory for Obama. No matter how you spin the map this scenario seems to be the easiest for Obama to reach. New Mexico has looked strong for months, Colorado is leaning Democratic more and more and New Hampshire is one of the Kerry states that Obama has had a lead in, albeit a small one. Notice that the probability of Obama to win those states decreases from left to right. (Note: New Hampshire's important role)

2) 'The Western Road'

255 + NM + CO + NV = 274

The same as scenario one except New Hampshire is replaced by Nevada. Nevada has been close in the latest polls and the state's demographics are changing rapidly but it would still be quite a coup for Obama. Still this remains a possible scenario.

3) 'The Thief's Road'

255 + VA + any state (eg. NH) = over 270

If Obama wins Virginia he's only two EV's short of victory. Then New Hampshire would again play a crucial role in bringing Obama past the finish line. On the other hand, if Obama wins Virginia and its 13 EV's it's likely that he's going to win more than one other state. As to how likely an Obama victory is in Virginia? The demographics are changing in this state too and the Democrats have had a formidable voter registration effort there. The African American turnout would have to be big. It's not impossible - Virginia's result is one of the most difficult to estimate (remember also the Bradley effect). Virginia has been traditionally a solid red state so this would definately be a magnificent theft by Obama.

4) 'The Battleground Road'

255 + OH/FL = over 270

If Obama wins Ohio, it's done. Ohio has been swinging back and forth in the latest polls, though it seems McCain has the upper hand at the moment. Florida seems to lean Republican and is a tough place for Obama to crack. He has the money to keep trying there but it's still a moderately long shot.

So in conclusion, Obama has quite a few ways to win this election (more than McCain on which I focus in the coming days). The assumption here is that Obama keeps the Kerry states (minus NH) and carries Iowa. One might claim that's a too optimistic of an assumption. However, the dynamics of the race seem to indicate that if Obama loses any of those Kerry states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin it will be hard for him to clean the table elsewhere. Those 255 EV's are not a lock for him yet and he has to fight to keep them but he has a much easier task of keeping all those states than McCain has of winning any one of those.

How to get those 15 electoral votes? Four scenarios rise above all else. Personally I estimate that either 'The Likely Road' or 'The Battleground Road' (with Ohio) are the most likely ones (huh, I have a lot of imagination in naming things). It'll be interesting to follow state polls and to see the race evolving.

One thing is for sure. If nothing dramatic happens and the race stays relatively close until the election day, Obama has more ways of winning than McCain. I'll analyze McCain's prospects soon. But one other thing is sure also - forget Georgia, Missouri and the like.

If I had to put my money on the line for Obama I'd say Ohio is the place to bet on. He wins there and it's over. One state, folks, it might just come down to one state again.