McCain's ways to the White House - 269-269 remains a possibility

What am I blabbering about 269-269? The more I look at the map the more it looks like that it's definately possible. On the other hand, there are naturally multiple other ways how the race might end up - with McCain actually winning. So let's look at those options first.

Two days ago I wrote about Obama's four roads to victory. There I argued that his base number of electoral votes is actually 255 which is undeniably a high number. It includes all the states Kerry won (minus New Hampshire) plus Iowa. I hold on to that analysis. It doesn't mean though that McCain isn't able to crack that base. First let's look at how McCain is able to work around that number without actually winning any of those 255 EV's.

McCain's base number at the moment is 227 EV's (it includes Indiana which is arguably close and Florida, which is somewhat close though leaning Republican). The fact remains that McCain has much less options of winning than Obama. He has many states that he must absolutely win in order to win.

If Obama wins the mentioned 255 EV's, he needs only 15 electoral votes to win. The states left in play in that scenario are New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Now let's look at McCain's possible ways to victory.

1) 'The Swing State Way' (the most likely option)

227 + OH + VA + CO + NV = 274

Ohio is a must win for McCain. If he loses it, it's over because it's unlikely that he wins Pennsylvania or Michigan if he loses Ohio. Virginia is practically a must win too. Good news is that McCain is still a very slight favourite in both. Colorado is definately in Obama's reach but it too has traditionally been Republican. If Palin helps anywhere, she helps here. Nevada is another swing state but McCain has been in the lead there by a couple of poins pretty consistently for some time now. It's no doubt close but if Obama wins it he probably wins a lot of other swing states too and then it's over for McCain.

The good news for McCain is that while he doesn't have many ways to victory, this way is not unlikely at all. In fact, all these states voted Republican in the last two elections. So if McCain can keep the traditional Republican states, he wins. That is a difficult job for him but not a long shot.

2) 'The Breakthrough Way'

The only other chance for McCain to win the election is to break Obama's so-called base of 255 EV's. That means he has to win either Pennsylvania or Michigan (Minnesota, Wisconsin are more unlikely if not impossible, Oregon and Washington are out of reach no matter how "close" the polls supposedly are at the moment)

227 + OH + VA + PA/MI = 277 / 281

This would require McCain winning Ohio and Virginia again. Then if he wins Pennsylvania or Michigan he wins. In fact, if Obama loses PA or MI he pretty much can't win. This is a big challenge for McCain but not impossible. The latest polls there show a narrow race although those polls were conducted right at the height of McCain's bounce and now the race is again going better for Obama. This will be a hard task but it's also the only other way of him winning the election.

In conclusion, Obama has to win Pennsylvania and Michigan in order to win the election. McCain absolutely has to win Florida, Ohio and Virginia for him to win the race. Colorado will be a crucial state for McCain also because without it he'd had to win New Mexico and New Hampshire (if he doesn't win MI or PA).

But there's a third way...

3) '269-269' - the House decides the winner

Obama: 255 EV's + CO + NM = 269
McCain: 227EV's + OH + VA + NM + NH = 269

This scenario isn't even that unlikely. McCain wins Florida, Ohio and Virginia (not a big stretch of imagination). Obama wins Kerry states (minus New Hampshire), Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. Then, McCain wins New Hampshire - it's even.

The polls are actually making this scenario a real possibility. Obama is ahead in New Mexico and Colorado is a pure toss-up. McCain is in the lead in Ohio and Florida right now and Virginia is a traditional red state which very well might not flip. Then McCain needs only New Hampshire where he was +3 in the last conducted poll and where he has traditionally done very well.

This scenario would of course probably result in an Obama victory because it's hard to imagine the Republicans winning back the house.

The situation is this: Obama has at least four distinctive ways of reaching 270, McCain has basically two scenarios for doing the same. McCain has to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania or he has to defend succesfully all those states that Bush won two times in a row (Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada).