McCain's sudden downward trend

The convention bounce was not to last. Most people who thought rationally knew that McCain's momentum was temporary and that the race would be quite even quite soon. Yes, the Democrats panicked a little bit and it's only natural to worry when the polls don't go your way but those few who were able to observe the race without emotional involvement (that excludes me) were more commonly right in their conclusions. There are suprisingly high number of journalists who go by the flow and follow any given narrative that is being touted at any one time but let's not go into that right now.

The real notion here is that while many predicted McCain coming down and that the race would become even, few thought Obama would suddenly surge ahead with a big momentum before the first debate. But that is what's happening right now as I type.

The polls are clear. Here's Gallup's trend.

9/10: 48-44 McCain +4
9/12: 47-45 McCain + 2
9/14: 47-45 McCain +2
9/16: 45-47 Obama +2

Obama has surged ahead and gained six points in a week. And remember that Gallup's polls were more kind to McCain than many others. Let's look at Research2000's trend:

9/11: 45-47 Obama +2
9/15: 45-48 Obama +3
9/18: 43-49 Obama +6

While Research2000 uses a more favourable method towards Democrats than many other pollster (they interview 9% more Democrats than Republicans) the trend is clear - Obama's bump is four points in a week.

Hotline had the race on 9/11 at 46-44 for McCain. On 9/17 it was 45-42 for Obama. Obama gains five points in a week.

Rasmussen has had a much even graph between the two but even there are pretty clear signs of a shift. On 9/11 it was 46-46, an even race. Today about a week later it's again even at 48-48. However, in between McCain was in the lead with 3 points. So McCain's three-point lead has melted even when Rasmussen changed their party affiliation numbers in a way that favoured Republicans.

Few reasons why this is happening and why it has been faster than expected:

1) The positive Palin bounce has come to an end - Palin is more and more likely to become a liability.

2) The huge financial meltdown is clearly favouring Obama. McCain's statement of "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" can't do him much good.

3) McCain-Palin ticket has been painted more and more as liars and they lost the ad-war in the past week. Partly to blame is the campaign's own attack ads.

In conclusion, the trend is worrisome for McCain. All signs pointed towards an even stretch before the first debate on 26th of September. The Palin pick looks after a rosy start a bit more risky and the public discussion has really backlashed on McCain. The favourability numbers are coming down alarmingly fast for both McCain and Palin.

While the Democrats panicked too quickly just a few days ago, the Republicans have no need to feel too panicky - yet. In this election the news cycle is so much faster that everything can change before the first debate. Still, McCain needs to stop the bleeding before it gets out of control. He has a bigger chance of losing this election before the election day than Obama has.

No, Armageddon is not upon McCain's campaign but after an excellent start of the month they need to adjust themselves back into a more familiar role - as an underdog.